Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Nick Cortez, and I'm just a regular guy from Nebraska who wants to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I believe these markets are valuable for people like me. I'm not a Wall Street type, just someone trying to make smart decisions with my money, and I think the CFTC should support well-regulated prediction markets rather than over-restrict or ban them.
I use prediction markets to hedge real risks in my life. For example, I run a small side hustle selling handmade goods, and election outcomes or policy changes can affect shipping costs or taxes in ways that hit my bottom line hard. Trading on event contracts lets me offset some of that uncertainty. This isn't gambling to me. It takes research and judgment, just like investing in stocks. I read up on policies, watch the news, and think hard about what might happen. Calling this "gaming" feels like a misunderstanding of the real economic purpose these markets serve.
I'm also worried about what happens if these markets get banned or over-regulated. I've seen offshore platforms out there with no oversight, and they're far riskier than a regulated market like Kalshi. If the CFTC clamps down too hard, people like me will get pushed to those unsafe venues. Regulation should protect consumers, not drive us to sketchy alternatives. Plus, the US should be leading the way in financial innovation. Why let other countries take the lead on something we can do better and safer here?
I know there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get that. But the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle those issues in other markets. Use those same powers here. Don't punish everyone by shutting down prediction markets because a few bad actors might cheat. And honestly, informed trading makes the prices more accurate, which helps everyone, not just traders. Better forecasts benefit the public, businesses, even policymakers.
Looking at some of the specific questions in the ANPR, I want to weigh in on a few. On Question 7 about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think regulated markets strike that balance by keeping things safe without stifling new ideas. On Question 15 about defining gaming, I strongly feel event contracts aren't gambling when they help hedge real risks. And on Question 29 regarding inside information, I believe informed traders improve price discovery as long as existing laws against insider trading are enforced.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Let regular folks like me participate in legal, regulated markets that help us manage uncertainty and make informed choices. Thanks for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Nick Cortez
