Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Sean Collins, and I'm just a regular citizen from Colorado writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times myself, and I strongly support having them regulated in a fair and balanced way, not banned or overly restricted.
I think prediction markets are valuable for a lot of reasons. For one, they've been better at forecasting election outcomes and other big public events than most polls or talking heads on TV. I've seen this firsthand when I placed small trades on platforms like Kalshi for the 2024 election cycle. The odds there gave me a clearer picture of what might happen than anything I read in the news. That kind of insight isn't just useful for people like me who trade; it's helpful for everyone, from journalists to regular folks trying to understand the world.
I'm also a big believer in freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. These platforms let everyday people like me have a say in forecasting events that matter to us. If we shut that down or limit it to just big institutions, we're cutting out the little guy and keeping all the good information at the top. That's not fair, and it doesn't help make the markets more accurate. Plus, this isn't gambling in my view. It takes research and real thought, just like picking a stock or betting on commodity prices.
One thing I really want to stress is that the US needs to lead on financial innovation. We can't afford to fall behind other countries by over-regulating or banning prediction markets. If we push this activity offshore to unregulated platforms, we lose oversight and put users at greater risk. I've read about how other nations are embracing these tools, and I worry that if we don't act smartly, we'll miss out on shaping the future of this space. I think this ties directly to some of the questions in your ANPR, like Question 7 on balancing innovation with consumer protection. My take is simple: regulate to protect users, but don't stifle the potential here.
I know there are concerns about things like insider trading or manipulation, and I get that. But those are already illegal, right? The CFTC has tools to go after bad actors without shutting down entire markets. Banning prediction markets to stop a few cheaters would be like closing the stock market over insider trading. It punishes everyone else instead of targeting the problem.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Keep them legal and accessible on regulated platforms, with clear rules to address specific risks. Let's not throw out a useful tool because of worries that can be managed.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Sean Collins
