Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jaffar Alomran, and I'm a regular citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I believe that well-regulated prediction markets offer real value to people like me and to society as a whole. I want to urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of these markets rather than imposing bans or overly restrictive rules.
I started trading on prediction markets because they give me access to information I can't find anywhere else. Whether it's an election outcome that might affect my taxes or a Federal Reserve decision that could impact my cost of living, the prices on these markets often predict events more accurately than polls or pundits. I've seen this firsthand, and it helps me make better personal financial decisions. Beyond that, I think this kind of price discovery benefits everyone, not just traders. When informed people participate, the market reflects a clearer picture of what's likely to happen, and thats useful for the public and even policymakers.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi operate under CFTC oversight, which makes me feel safer compared to unregulated offshore alternatives. If the U.S. over-restricts or bans these markets, people like me will get pushed to less secure venues. Thats a loss for consumer protection, not a win. The U.S. should be leading the way in financial innovation, setting a standard for the world, not ceding ground to other countries with looser rules.
Another point I want to make is that prediction markets aren't gambling. They serve real economic purposes. I use them to hedge risks that affect my life, like inflation numbers that could change my budget or weather events that might disrupt my plans. This takes research and judgment, just like any other kind of investing. Labeling this as "gaming" feels wrong to me. In response to some of the CFTC's questions, particularly in Topic Area B on Public Interest (Questions 7-14), Id argue that the innovation and risk management benefits of prediction markets far outweigh the concerns, as long as theres proper oversight. And on Topic Area C (Questions 15-22), I believe event contracts should be defined based on their economic utility, not dismissed as gambling.
I understand there are worries about manipulation or insider trading, but the CFTC already has tools to address those issues. Banning or over-restricting these markets punishes regular participants like me instead of targeting bad actors. I hope the CFTC will focus on balanced rules that protect consumers while preserving access to these valuable tools.
Thank you for considering my input. I strongly support proportionate regulation of prediction markets to ensure they remain safe, accessible, and innovative.
Sincerely,
Jaffar Alomran
