Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Alex Dro, and I'm just an everyday citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times myself, and I strongly support regulating them in a way that allows regular people like me to participate in legal, safe platforms while recognizing their real economic value.
I believe prediction markets are incredibly useful, both for me personally and for society as a whole. The forecasts they produce often beat out polls or pundits by a wide margin. I've seen this firsthand when checking platforms for election outcomes or economic indicators; the prices reflect a kind of crowd wisdom you can't find anywhere else. This isn't just helpful for traders. Its information that benefits everyone, from journalists to policymakers. I also think it's important that regular folks have access to these markets. If only big institutions can play, theyll hoard all the insights, and thats not fair.
I want to stress that event contracts aren't gambling. They serve real purposes, like helping people and businesses manage risks. For instance, Ive used a platform to hedge against potential policy changes that could affect my taxes. Thats not a game; its a practical tool, just like buying insurance or investing in stocks. Calling this gambling feels like a misstep when the skills involved are research and judgment about real-world events.
Im also concerned about pushing activity to unregulated offshore platforms if the rules get too tight. Ive stuck to regulated markets like Kalshi because I trust theres oversight to prevent fraud or manipulation. If those options disappear, people will turn to shadier sites with no protections. Thats not safer for anyone. On the topic of risks like insider trading, I get the concern, but the answer isnt banning these markets. Laws already exist to stop federal employees or others from trading on nonpublic info, and the CFTC has tools to tackle manipulation. Use those, dont punish the rest of us.
Id like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think regulated prediction markets strike that balance by fostering new financial tools while keeping safeguards in place. On Question 15, regarding defining gaming versus legitimate markets, I urge you to focus on the economic purpose of event contracts, not just label them as games.
In closing, I ask that the CFTC support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Please dont ban or over-restrict them. Keep access open for regular people like me, and ensure platforms operate under clear, fair rules. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Alex Dro
