Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Ramiro Escobedo, and I'm just a regular delivery guy from Texas. Im writing to you about the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, published in the Federal Register (91 FR 12516). Ive been trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I want to share why I think these markets are valuable and should be regulated in a fair way, not banned or overly restricted.
As someone who works hard every day delivering packages, I dont have a fancy degree or a Wall Street job. But trading on prediction markets gives me a chance to use my knowledge and judgment about things like sports and even bigger events like elections. Ive seen firsthand how these markets often predict outcomes better than polls or TV pundits. Their prices seem to cut through the noise and show whats really likely to happen. Thats not just helpful for me when I trade, its useful information for everyone, whether theyre trading or not. I think the US should be a leader in this kind of financial innovation. We shouldnt let other countries take the lead while we drag our feet with too many rules or outright bans.
Ill be honest, though, the system isnt perfect. Just last week, I put $100 on a sports contract for a player, and the other guy retired before even playing. I didnt get my money back, and that stung. I get that not every trade can go my way, but theres got to be clearer rules or protections for weird situations like forfeits or retirements. Im not saying shut these markets down over it, Im saying fix the issues so regular folks like me arent left hanging.
Looking at some of the questions in your notice, I want to speak to Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection. I think you can do both. Dont throw out a useful tool like prediction markets just because there are risks. Put in safeguards, sure, but let these platforms grow. And on Question 11 about price discovery, Id say these markets are great at figuring out whats likely to happen. Theyve been more accurate than a lot of so-called experts, and thats a public good.
I also worry that if you over-regulate or ban these markets here, people will just go to offshore sites with no rules at all. Id rather trade on a US platform like Kalshi where theres at least some oversight. So please, keep working on rules that let prediction markets operate while protecting folks like me from unfair losses. Dont shut them down or make it too hard for regular people to participate.
Thanks for reading my thoughts. I hope youll support fair and proportionate regulation of prediction markets.
Sincerely,
Ramiro Escobedo
