Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Leon Kessler, and I'm a trader and investor based in California. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and Im writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide unique value to people like me, as well as to society at large, and I urge the CFTC to regulate them proportionately rather than imposing overly restrictive rules or outright bans.
As a trader, Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets offer information you cant get anywhere else. Their forecasts on elections and public events are often more accurate than polls or pundits. Ive used these insights to better understand the likelihood of outcomes that impact my investments and personal finances. This isnt just useful for traders like me; its valuable for anyone who wants clearer signals about the future, whether its journalists, policymakers, or regular citizens. On top of that, Ive been able to hedge financial risks tied to political or economic events. For instance, trading on election outcomes has helped me manage uncertainties around policies that could affect my portfolio or taxes.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, operating under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If we over-restrict or ban these markets, activity will just move to less transparent, riskier venues. That doesnt protect anyone. Plus, Im a firm believer in the academic research behind prediction markets. Studies show they aggregate information efficiently, and I think the CFTC should encourage data transparency from these platforms to support further study. Finally, the U.S. should be a leader in financial innovation. We cant afford to cede ground to other countries by stifling this growing industry.
Id like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, regarding public interest, I believe prediction markets serve the public by democratizing access to information and improving forecasting accuracy. On Question 29, about inside information, I acknowledge the concern but think the answer lies in enforcing existing laws against insider trading, not banning these markets. Shutting them down to stop a few bad actors would punish everyone else, and the CFTC already has tools to tackle manipulation.
Prediction markets arent gambling. They take research and judgment, just like trading stocks or commodities. Im asking the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that addresses real risks without killing innovation or pushing activity offshore. Lets keep these markets accessible, safe, and beneficial for all.
Sincerely,
Leon Kessler
