Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Simon Champney, and I'm a student from New Hampshire. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi, I want to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets and urge the CFTC to avoid over-restricting or banning these valuable tools.
I got into prediction markets because I'm fascinated by how they aggregate information. I've seen firsthand that the forecasts on these platforms are often more accurate than polls or pundits on TV. For example, during the last election cycle, I tracked predictions on Kalshi and noticed they aligned closer to the actual results than many major news outlets. This isn't just a game for me; it's a way to understand the world better. As a student, having access to this kind of data helps me think critically about events and even informs my academic work. I believe this benefit extends to everyone, not just traders.
I also want to stress that event contracts aren't gambling. They serve real economic purposes, like helping people hedge against uncertainty or make informed decisions. Trading on these markets requires research and judgment, much like investing in stocks. Classifying them as "gaming" feels like a misunderstanding of what they do. I hope the CFTC considers this when addressing questions 15-22 in the ANPR about defining gaming versus legitimate markets.
Another big concern for me is the idea of banning or heavily restricting these markets. I trade on Kalshi because it's regulated and transparent, which makes me feel safer. If the CFTC over-restricts platforms like this, people like me will be pushed to unregulated offshore sites where there are no protections. That's not a solution; it's a bigger problem. I'd urge the Commission to look at questions 7-14 on balancing innovation with consumer protection and prioritize keeping activity within regulated spaces.
I understand there are risks, like potential manipulation or insider trading. But those are already illegal, and the CFTC has tools to address them. Shutting down entire markets to stop a few bad actors seems unfair to those of us who use these platforms responsibly. Instead of broad bans, I hope you'll focus on targeted rules to address specific issues.
In closing, I ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Keep platforms like Kalshi accessible to regular people like me, under clear and fair rules. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Simon Champney
