Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is John Kelly, and I'm a small business owner from Maryland. I run a local hardware store, and I've been at it for over a decade, navigating the ups and downs of economic shifts and policy changes that impact my bottom line. I'm writing to you about the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm new to prediction markets myself, but I strongly support their existence under fair, regulated conditions, and I want to share why I think they matter to people like me.
As a business owner, I deal with uncertainty all the time. Whether it's a new regulation, a change in tariffs, or an election outcome that could affect my taxes or supply costs, these events can hit my livelihood hard. I've recently learned about prediction markets, and I see them as a potential tool to hedge against some of those risks. For instance, if I could trade contracts tied to policy outcomes or economic indicators, I might better protect my business from sudden shocks. This isn't about gambling. It's about managing real-world risks with information that I can't get from polls or news pundits. I believe these markets can offer unique insights and help not just me, but other small businesses and regular folks who want to plan ahead.
I also worry about what happens if these markets get banned or over-restricted. If the CFTC clamps down too hard, people won't just stop participating. They'll turn to offshore platforms that aren't regulated at all, where there's no oversight or protection. That seems like a worse outcome for everyone. I'd much rather see prediction markets operate legally here in the U.S., under CFTC rules that keep things fair and transparent. I'm all for preventing fraud or manipulation, but shutting down access or imposing excessive restrictions feels like oppression, financial or otherwise. I don't consent to that kind of heavy-handed approach.
Regarding some of the specific questions in the ANPR, I think Question 7 about balancing innovation and consumer protection hits the nail on the head. We need rules that stop bad actors without killing the ability for regular people to participate. And on Question 15, about defining what kinds of contracts should be allowed, I urge you to focus on whether a market serves a legitimate economic purpose, like hedging, rather than labeling things as "gaming" just because they involve future events.
I ask you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban them or pile on restrictions that push activity out of reach for small players like me. Keep them legal, regulated, and accessible so we can all benefit from better information and risk management tools. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
John Kelly
