Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Thomas Lidke, and I'm just a regular guy from New Jersey writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I work in the casino industry, so I know a thing or two about gambling. But Ive also used prediction markets a few times, and I can tell you theyre not the same as rolling dice or pulling a slot machine. But the way money used like stock market options. It is gambling. They're based on real data and research, and I think they have a lot of value for people like me and for society as a whole.
I support well-regulated prediction markets because they give us information you can't find anywhere else. I've seen firsthand how their forecasts on elections and public events often beat out polls or TV pundits. That kind of accuracy helps everyone, not just traders. Its useful for understanding what might happen next, whether you're making personal decisions or just trying to stay informed. Plus, these markets let regular folks like me participate in a fair way. If only big institutions can play, they keep all the insights to themselves. Opening it up makes the data better and levels the playing field.
I also see real value in hedging risks. As someone with a job tied to an industry that can be affected by policy changes, being able to hedge against political or economic outcomes could protect my financial stability. Prediction markets arent just speculation; theyre a tool for managing uncertainty. And speaking of uncertainty, I worry that banning or over-restricting these markets would push activity to unregulated offshore platforms. Id much rather see the CFTC keep things safe and transparent here at home. The US should be leading the charge on financial innovation, not handing that advantage to other countries.
On the topic of informed trading, which I know the CFTC is asking about in Questions 29 to 32, I believe it actually helps. When people with knowledge trade, the prices get sharper and more accurate. That benefits everyone by improving price discovery. Of course, insider trading is a concern, but its already illegal, and the CFTC has tools to enforce that. Shutting down markets over a few bad actors punishes the rest of us who play by the rules.
Im also impressed by the academic research on this, which shows prediction markets aggregate information really well. That transparency and data can help public decision-making, and I think its worth protecting. So, Im asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban them or make the rules so tight that only the biggest players can participate. Keep them accessible, safe, and innovative right here in the US.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Thomas Lidke
