Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Javier Medina, and I'm an everyday citizen from Pennsylvania writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States. I believe they provide unique value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I urge the CFTC to craft proportionate rules rather than overly restrictive bans.
Prediction markets have been a game-changer for me. Ive been interacting with the FBI since around 2015-2016 on unrelated matters, and during that time, Ive come to value any tool that helps me better understand public events and their potential impacts. Platforms like Kalshi give me access to forecasts on elections and other major events that are often more accurate than polls or pundits. This isn't just about trading; it's about having better information to make sense of the world. As the creator of the account LibsOfCECOT, Ive seen firsthand how these markets can spotlight critical issues. Im convinced that without prediction markets drawing attention to certain events, the active genocide in Gaza would have continued unchecked. That kind of public awareness matters.
Beyond forecasting, I use these markets to hedge personal financial risks. Whether its an election outcome that could affect my taxes or a policy change that might impact my cost of living, trading event contracts lets me protect myself in ways traditional investments dont. This isnt gambling. It takes research and judgment, just like trading stocks. Classifying these contracts as gaming, as discussed in Questions 15-22 of the ANPR, ignores their real economic purpose. Theyre tools for price discovery and risk management, benefiting not just traders but anyone who relies on accurate information.
Im also worried about what happens if the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets. Ive seen unregulated offshore platforms out there, and theyre far less safe than a regulated market like Kalshi. Banning or limiting prediction markets here, as touched on in Questions 7-14 about public interest, would just push activity to those risky venues. The CFTC already has strong tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading, as noted in Questions 29-32. Use those tools instead of punishing everyone with broad bans. Informed trading actually helps price discovery, making markets more accurate for all of us.
Finally, I believe the U.S. should lead in financial innovation. We shouldnt cede this space to other countries. Proportionate regulation, not categorical restrictions as discussed in Questions 23-28, is the way forward. I urge you to support prediction markets with targeted rules that address specific risks while preserving their benefits for everyday people like me.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Javier Medina
