Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Colin Kadera, and I'm a student from Florida. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. As someone who actively trades on regulated platforms like Kalshi, I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide unique value to people like me and to society at large, and I urge the CFTC to adopt a balanced approach to their oversight.
I've found prediction markets to be an incredible tool for understanding the world around me. As a student, I'm always trying to make sense of complex events, whether it's an upcoming election or a major policy shift. The forecasts on these platforms often cut through the noise of opinion polls and media speculation, giving me a clearer picture of what might happen. This isn't just useful for my own curiosity. I think it helps everyone, from regular citizens to decision-makers, by providing better information for public discussions. Price discovery in these markets isn't some abstract concept, it's a real public good.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Trading on Kalshi has taught me to research, analyze data, and think critically about real-world outcomes. It's not gambling, it's a skill that mirrors what people do in other financial markets. Banning or overly restricting these platforms would take away that opportunity from everyday folks like me. Worse, it would likely push activity to unregulated offshore sites, where there are no safeguards at all. I'd much rather see the CFTC keep these markets in the U.S., under proper oversight, than drive them underground.
I understand there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and those are valid worries. But the CFTC already has strong tools to address these issues in other derivatives markets. I believe those same tools can be adapted for prediction markets without resorting to broad bans. In response to questions 1 and 29 from your ANPR, I think focusing on targeted enforcement of existing anti-manipulation and insider trading rules is the right path. Categorical prohibitions, as discussed in questions 15 and 23, seem like overkill when specific risks can be managed through proportionate regulation.
I'm just one voice, but I hope you'll consider the benefits prediction markets bring to people like me. They help us learn, engage with important issues, and access information thats hard to find elsewhere. Please support a regulatory framework that allows these markets to thrive while addressing real risks with focused, fair rules. Don't let broad restrictions or bans shut down something so valuable.
Thank you for considering my comments.
Sincerely,
Colin Kadera
