Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Christian Martin, and I'm a business owner from Texas. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I want to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets and urge the CFTC to craft rules that allow ordinary people like me to participate in these markets without facing unnecessary restrictions.
As a small business owner, I face a lot of financial uncertainty, especially with the rising cost of living. I've been trading on regulated prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and this has become an important stream of income for my family. By using my knowledge on certain topics and connections through my business associations, I've been able to make informed trades that help ease the stress of making ends meet. This isn't just a hobby; it's a practical way for me to manage risks and support my household. Prediction markets aren't gambling to me. They require research and judgment, much like any other investment I make for my business.
I also see real value in how these markets help people and businesses hedge against risks. For example, I can trade on events like policy changes or economic data releases that directly affect my business costs or taxes. This kind of hedging is a lifeline for someone like me, and I know others in my community feel the same. Beyond that, academic research shows these markets often predict outcomes better than polls or pundits. That kind of transparency and data is a public good, not something to be stifled.
I want to address a concern I know the CFTC has about safety and fairness. I get why there's worry about manipulation or insider trading, but I believe regulated markets like Kalshi are far safer than unregulated offshore platforms. If you over-restrict or ban these markets, people will just turn to less secure options outside the U.S. That's not protecting anyone; it's pushing activity into the shadows. The CFTC already has tools to tackle bad actors, and I'd rather see those enforced than see entire markets shut down. Specifically, in response to Questions 7 and 8 under the Public Interest section, I think the balance should lean toward innovation with targeted safeguards, not broad prohibitions.
I'm also concerned about maintaining freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets, as raised in Questions 15 to 22 about listed activities. Categorizing these markets as "gaming" feels wrong when they serve real economic purposes for people like me. I urge you to focus on proportionate regulation that addresses specific risks without punishing everyone.
Please support rules that allow prediction markets to thrive under fair oversight. Don't ban or overly restrict them. Let folks like me continue to use these tools to manage our risks and contribute to better information for everyone.
Sincerely,
Christian Martin
