Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Ritesh Prasad, and I'm a student from Wisconsin with a deep interest in markets and technology. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516) to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets. As someone who has used prediction markets a few times and aspires to contribute to this field academically, I believe these markets offer unique value to society and deserve thoughtful, proportionate regulation rather than overly restrictive rules or bans.
I'm currently planning to pursue a PhD next year, focusing on how recent technology can make markets more efficient by incorporating all public information into asset prices. This research aligns closely with the idea of prediction markets and their role in price discovery. I even dream of creating my own prediction market someday, where every commodity and real-world event can find a fair price. To me, prediction markets aren't just a novelty; they are a powerful tool for generating better information that helps everyone, from regular citizens to policymakers, make informed decisions. I've seen firsthand how these platforms often outperform traditional polls or expert opinions in forecasting outcomes, and I believe this data should be accessible for academic research and public use.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, are far safer and more transparent than unregulated offshore alternatives. If we overly restrict or ban prediction markets in the US, people will simply turn to less secure venues, which helps no one. Regulation builds trust, and trust is critical for these markets to thrive. In fact, I think there should be a dedicated regulatory body, similar to the SEC, specifically for prediction markets. A clear, consistent framework would assure the public that these platforms are legitimate and safe to use.
Addressing some of your specific questions, particularly in Topic B on Public Interest (Questions 7-14), I urge the CFTC to recognize the value of prediction markets in price discovery and democratizing information. And in Topic D on Procedural Aspects (Questions 23-28), I believe public interest determinations should prioritize innovation and access over blanket restrictions. As for concerns about manipulation or insider trading, I understand the risks, but the CFTC already has tools to address these issues in other markets. Let's adapt those safeguards rather than punishing everyone by limiting access.
In closing, I ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. These platforms provide unique insights, encourage civic engagement, and can be a safe space for participation if properly overseen. Please don't let overregulation stifle this potential. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Ritesh Prasad
