Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Koda Astro, and I'm a small business owner from California. Im writing to express my strong support for the proportionate regulation of prediction markets as outlined in the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). Ive been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I believe these markets provide real value to people like me. I want to share why I think the CFTC should support regulated prediction markets instead of overly restricting them.
As a business owner, I deal with uncertainty every day, whether its policy changes, economic shifts, or supply chain issues. Trading on Kalshi has given me a way to hedge some of that risk and gain insights I cant find anywhere else. The prices on these markets often reflect real-world probabilities better than news or polls. More importantly, having access to a legal, regulated platform in the U.S. feels safe. I know my funds arent disappearing into some shady offshore site. If prediction markets get over-regulated or banned here, people like me will just turn to unregulated foreign platforms with no oversight. Thats not protecting consumers; its pushing us into riskier spaces. Id rather see the CFTC focus on strong rules for U.S.-based markets to keep them transparent and fair.
I also think the U.S. should be a leader in financial innovation. We shouldnt let other countries take the lead on something as cutting-edge as prediction markets. Platforms like Kalshi are already doing it right with clear rules and oversight. I dont see why anything needs to change about how they operate. Theyre a model for how regulated markets can work well, balancing innovation with consumer protection.
Specifically addressing some of your questions in the ANPR, I believe regulated markets directly serve the public interest (Question 7) by providing democratized access to information and hedging tools. On consumer protection (Question 8), regulation under the CFTC is the best way to ensure safety, far better than driving activity offshore through heavy-handed bans or restrictions.
I urge you to craft rules that support prediction markets while addressing specific risks like manipulation or insider trading with targeted measures. Dont limit access for regular people or stifle platforms like Kalshi that are already working well under your oversight. Keep the U.S. at the forefront of this space, and protect consumers by regulating, not restricting.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Koda Astro
