Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Brayden Beasley, and Im a business owner based in California. Im writing to comment on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States, and I want to share why they matter to me and my business, as well as to the broader economy.
As a small business owner, Ive used prediction markets like Kalshi to hedge risks that directly impact my operations. For instance, Ive traded event contracts tied to election outcomes and economic indicators like inflation data, which affect my costs for supplies and labor. Being able to hedge against these uncertainties helps me plan better and protect my bottom line. Its not gambling, its a practical tool. The research and judgment I put into these trades are no different from what I do when investing in other markets. Classifying event contracts as gaming ignores their real economic purpose, like price discovery and risk management, which I rely on.
I also value the forecasting power of prediction markets. The prices often provide better insights into elections and public events than polls or pundits. This isnt just useful for me, its valuable for everyone, from policymakers to regular citizens trying to make informed decisions. Academic studies back this up, showing how these markets aggregate information efficiently. That kind of transparency benefits society as a whole.
Im not blind to the concerns about manipulation or insider trading, but the CFTC already has strong tools to address these issues in other derivatives markets. Use those tools here instead of over-restricting or banning prediction markets. Shutting down regulated platforms like Kalshi would push activity to unregulated offshore sites, which are far less safe and lack oversight. Id much rather trade on a CFTC-regulated market where there are clear rules and consumer protections in place.
On specific questions in the ANPR, Id like to address Question 8 under Public Interest. Prediction markets absolutely serve the public good through accurate forecasting and risk management, and the CFTC should balance innovation with protection by setting clear, proportionate rules. Also, on Question 15 under Listed Activities, event contracts shouldnt be lumped in with gaming. They have legitimate purposes, as Ive experienced firsthand. Finally, on Question 33 regarding Classification, I urge you to avoid overly burdensome categories that could stifle small businesses like mine from participating.
The US has a chance to lead in financial innovation. We shouldnt cede that ground to other countries by over-regulating or banning these markets. I ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that allows prediction markets to thrive while addressing specific risks with targeted rules. Lets keep this activity legal, regulated, and accessible to everyday people like me.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Brayden Beasley
