Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Brennan Kosbau, and I'm just a regular citizen from Minnesota writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been following this issue because I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I believe prediction markets have real value that shouldn't be overlooked or overly restricted.
I support well-regulated prediction markets because they provide useful information that I can't find anywhere else. When I'm trying to understand what's likely to happen with an election or an economic event, the prices on these markets often seem more accurate than what I hear from pundits or read in polls. That's helpful not just for me, but for anyone trying to make sense of the world. I also don't see this as gambling at all. Trading on Kalshi takes research and thought, just like when I make decisions about my savings or investments. It's about analyzing real-world events, not flipping a coin or playing slots. These event contracts serve a real economic purpose, whether it's helping me think through financial risks or just staying informed.
One thing I'm especially concerned about is the idea of banning or heavily restricting these markets. I know there are worries about manipulation or insider trading, and I get that those are real issues. But shutting down regulated platforms like Kalshi won't stop people from trading, it will just push them to unregulated offshore sites that are way less safe. I've looked at some of those other platforms, and they don't have the oversight or transparency that a CFTC-registered market does. If anything, having regulated markets here in the US keeps things more accountable and protects people like me.
Looking at some of the questions in the ANPR, I want to address a couple from the Public Interest section, like Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection. I think regulated prediction markets strike that balance by letting everyday folks like me participate while still having rules in place to prevent abuse. Also, on Question 15 in the Listed Activities section about defining gaming versus legitimate markets, I strongly believe these contracts aren't gaming. They're about information and hedging, not chance.
I hope the CFTC will support proportionate regulation for prediction markets instead of broad bans or overly tight rules. Let's keep these markets accessible and safe by focusing on oversight, not prohibition. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Brennan Kosbau
