Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Nicolas Caldas, and Im a business owner based in Florida. Im writing to share my support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). Im new to these markets myself, but Ive taken the time to understand their value, both for my small business and for the broader economy. I believe the CFTC has a real opportunity here to foster innovation while protecting consumers with smart, targeted rules.
As a business owner, I deal with uncertainty every day, whether its policy changes, economic shifts, or even weather events that impact my operations. Prediction markets offer a unique tool to hedge against these risks. For example, being able to trade on the likelihood of a new tariff or regulatory change could help me plan inventory or pricing better. This isnt gambling; its practical risk management, no different from how I use other financial tools to protect my business. I think the CFTC should recognize that event contracts serve legitimate economic purposes and shouldnt be lumped in with gaming, as discussed in Questions 15-22 of the ANPR.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, operating under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If the U.S. over-restricts or bans these markets, activity will just move to less transparent venues, which helps no one. Id much rather see the U.S. lead in financial innovation and keep these markets here, under proper supervision. This ties into Questions 7-14 on balancing innovation and consumer protection. I believe regulation can achieve both.
On the issue of manipulation or insider trading, raised in Questions 29-32, Im confident the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle bad actors. Theres no need for broad bans that punish everyone for the actions of a few. Plus, informed trading often improves price discovery, making these markets more accurate and useful for all of us. Academic research backs this up, showing how prediction markets aggregate data better than polls or pundits. That transparency benefits society, not just traders.
I urge the CFTC to adopt proportionate, targeted regulations rather than sweeping restrictions. Focus on specific risks like manipulation with the tools you have, and dont let fear of misuse derail a valuable innovation. Prediction markets can help everyday people and businesses like mine manage real risks while keeping the U.S. competitive in financial markets. I hope youll support their growth under a sensible regulatory framework.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Nicolas Caldas
