Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jacob Weber, and I'm an everyday citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they offer real value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I hope the CFTC will create rules that allow these markets to thrive without over-restricting them.
I got into prediction markets because I wanted better information about elections and other big public events. Honestly, the forecasts on these platforms have been way more accurate than polls or pundits I've seen on TV. That kind of insight isn't just helpful for traders; its useful for anyone trying to make sense of the world. Beyond that, I've used these markets to hedge personal financial risks. For example, Ive placed trades on economic indicators like inflation reports because they affect my budget, from rent to groceries. It's not gambling to me; it's a practical tool, much like investing in stocks or commodities.
I also worry that banning or overly restricting these markets would push activity to unregulated offshore platforms. I've seen what those look like, and theyre nowhere near as safe or transparent as a regulated market like Kalshi. If the US wants to lead in financial innovation, we should be setting the standard with strong but fair rules, not ceding ground to other countries. Plus, I believe the CFTC already has solid tools to handle issues like manipulation and insider trading. Use those instead of broad bans that punish regular folks like me who are just trying to participate legally.
On some of the specific questions in the ANPR, Id like to address a couple from the Public Interest and Listed Activities sections, like Questions 7 and 15. I think prediction markets clearly serve the public interest by improving price discovery and giving better information to everyone, not just traders. And I dont see event contracts as gaming; they have real economic purposes, like hedging risks or aggregating data. Classifying them as gambling misses the point of why they exist. Also, on Question 29 about inside information, I believe informed trading actually helps make prices more accurate, which benefits all participants as long as existing laws against insider trading are enforced.
Im all for consumer protection, but I think the answer is proportionate regulation, not heavy-handed restrictions. Target the specific risks without shutting down the whole system. Please support rules that let prediction markets operate legally and safely under CFTC oversight. Dont let over-regulation drive this innovation offshore or out of reach for everyday people like me.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Jacob Weber
