Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Danielle Matthews, and I'm a trader and investor based in Maryland. I'm writing to express my strong support for the proportionate regulation of prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi, Ive seen firsthand how these markets provide unique value, and I believe the CFTC can regulate them effectively without imposing overly restrictive rules or outright bans.
I got into trading because I want to learn the ropes and build some financial stability. Prediction markets have been a game-changer for me. They aren't just a way to make trades; they offer information I can't find anywhere else. Ive noticed that the forecasts coming out of these markets are often more accurate than what I hear from polls or pundits on TV. For example, during the last election cycle, the odds on Kalshi gave me a clearer picture of what might happen than any news outlet. This kind of insight isnt just useful for traders like me; it helps everyone make better decisions, from regular folks to policymakers. I think the CFTC should recognize this public benefit when considering regulations, especially in relation to Questions 7 and 8 about balancing innovation and public interest.
Another point I feel strongly about is that event contracts arent gambling. I put real time into researching and analyzing before I place a trade, just like I do with stocks or other investments. These contracts serve a legitimate purpose, whether its price discovery or hedging against uncertainty in my life. Calling this gaming feels like a misunderstanding of whats really happening here. I urge the CFTC to look at Question 15 on how to define gaming versus legitimate markets and ensure these contracts are treated as the economic tools they are.
Lastly, Ive read some of the academic research on prediction markets, and it backs up what Ive seen. Studies show that informed trading actually improves price discovery, making the market better for everyone involved. The idea that insider trading is a reason to shut down these markets doesnt hold up for me. Bad actors should be dealt with using existing laws, not by punishing the rest of us. I think Question 29, about whether informed traders help price discovery, is key, and I believe they do.
Im asking the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets that allow people like me to participate. Dont let overblown fears lead to bans or harsh restrictions. Focus on targeted rules to handle real risks while keeping these markets accessible and innovative. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Danielle Matthews
