Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Bradley Coats, and I'm a trader and investor from Alabama. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and Im writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide real value to people like me, and I hope the CFTC will regulate them in a fair and balanced way without over-restricting or banning them.
As someone who uses Kalshi regularly, I can tell you these event contracts aren't gambling. I use them to make informed decisions for my business, whether it's gauging the likelihood of an election outcome that could impact my taxes or a policy change that might affect my investments. It takes research and judgment, just like trading stocks or commodities. Classifying these contracts as "gaming," as discussed in Questions 15-22 of the ANPR, ignores their legitimate economic purpose. They're a tool for price discovery and forecasting, often more accurate than polls or pundits when it comes to elections and public events. I've seen firsthand how these markets cut through the noise and give me insights I can't get anywhere else.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, operating under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, as hinted at in some of the public interest questions (7-14), I worry that activity will just move to less secure venues where theres no protection for traders like me. Regulation should keep us safe, not push us into the shadows.
On the concern of manipulation or insider trading, raised in Questions 29-32, I believe the CFTC already has strong tools to address these issues. Fraud and market manipulation are already illegal, and those laws apply here too. Enforcing existing rules is a better approach than blanket restrictions that punish honest participants. Shutting down prediction markets to stop a few bad actors would be like closing the stock market over insider trading. Its not fair, and it doesnt solve the problem.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that allows prediction markets to thrive while addressing specific risks with targeted rules. These markets offer unique forecasting value and economic utility, and they give regular folks like me a chance to engage with the events shaping our world. Please dont let overregulation or broad bans stifle this innovation.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Bradley Coats
