Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Luke Jackson, and I'm an everyday citizen from Washington, D.C. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I believe that well-regulated prediction markets offer real value to people like me and to society as a whole. I want to urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of these markets rather than imposing heavy restrictions or outright bans.
I've found prediction markets to be incredibly useful for getting information that I just can't find anywhere else. For instance, during the last election cycle, I relied on Kalshi's contract prices to gauge outcomes far more accurately than any poll or pundit I followed. That kind of forecasting isn't just helpful for traders; it gives everyone better data to make decisions, whether you're a voter, a business owner, or even a policymaker. I also use these markets to hedge personal financial risks. As someone who freelances, Ive got income tied to economic shifts. Trading on events like interest rate decisions helps me offset potential losses if policies go against me. This isn't gambling; it's practical risk management.
I strongly believe that regulated markets like Kalshi are a safer bet than pushing activity to unregulated offshore platforms. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, people won't stop trading; they'll just go to less transparent, riskier venues. Keeping these markets under CFTC oversight protects consumers like me with clear rules and accountability. I'm also concerned about U.S. competitiveness. We should be leading in financial innovation, not letting other countries take the reins because we're too cautious.
Addressing some of your specific questions, like those in Topic Area B on public interest (Questions 7-14), I think prediction markets clearly serve price discovery and risk management purposes. They aren't just games; they produce real economic value. On Topic Area E about inside information (Questions 29-32), I believe informed trading actually improves price accuracy, benefiting all participants. And let's not forget, the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading in other markets. Those can work here too, without shutting down entire categories of contracts.
I understand there are concerns about manipulation or misuse, but banning or over-regulating these markets punishes honest users like me. Focus on enforcing existing laws and targeting bad actors instead. I'm asking the CFTC to craft rules that allow prediction markets to thrive under fair oversight, ensuring access for everyday people while maintaining consumer protection. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Luke Jackson
