Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Landon Rich, and I'm a student from Indiana. I'm writing to express my support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I've used prediction markets a few times myself, and I believe they offer unique value for accurate forecasting and public decision-making. I want to share why I think the CFTC should support proportionate regulation rather than overly restrictive rules or outright bans.
As a student, Im always looking for better ways to understand the world around me, especially when it comes to elections and major public events. Prediction markets have given me insights that I cant find in polls or news commentary. The prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced information, and Ive seen firsthand how they often predict outcomes more accurately than so-called experts. This isnt just useful for me; its valuable for everyone, from policymakers to regular citizens, who can benefit from better information. I also appreciate the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Shutting out everyday people like me would mean only big players get access to this information, which doesnt seem fair.
I strongly believe event contracts arent gambling. They serve real economic purposes like price discovery and even hedging against uncertainty. Ive used these markets to think through how election outcomes might affect policies that impact my future, like student loan rules. Calling this gaming feels like a misstep when its really about research and judgment, much like any other investment.
Im also concerned about what happens if the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore sites. If you push too hard with restrictions, people will just go to those less safe venues. The US should be leading in financial innovation, not handing that role to other countries by driving activity overseas. Plus, the CFTC already has solid tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading in other derivatives markets. I trust you can adapt those tools here without resorting to broad prohibitions.
Looking at some of the specific questions in the ANPR, Id like to address a couple from Topic Area B on Public Interest, like Question 7 about balancing innovation and consumer protection. I think supporting regulated markets achieves both: innovation thrives, and oversight keeps things safe. Also, on Topic Area C, Question 15 about defining gaming versus legitimate markets, I urge you to recognize event contracts as legitimate tools for forecasting and economic utility, not games of chance.
I respectfully ask the CFTC to craft rules that support prediction markets with fair, targeted regulation. Dont ban or over-restrict them. Lets keep this valuable tool accessible and safe for people like me who want to engage with the world in an informed way.
Sincerely,
Landon Rich
