Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Hiren Patel, and I'm a software engineer based in Georgia. Im writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Ive been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide unique value, both to me personally and to society at large, and Id like to explain why.
As someone in the tech field, Im used to digging into data and analyzing trends to solve problems. Trading on prediction markets feels like a natural extension of that. Its not gambling, not by a long shot. It takes research, critical thinking, and a real understanding of current events, much like investing in stocks or other financial instruments. Ive used platforms like Kalshi to make informed trades on things like economic indicators or election outcomes, and the process has sharpened my ability to assess probabilities and risks. More importantly, the prices on these markets often reveal insights I cant find in news articles or opinion polls. Thats valuable information, not just for traders like me, but for anyone trying to understand whats likely to happen in the world.
I also want to highlight how informed trading, even by those with specialized knowledge, improves price discovery for everyone. In my view, when people with good information participate, the market prices become more accurate. That benefits all participants and even non-traders who look to these markets for signals. I know theres concern about insider trading, and I get that its a risk. But banning or overly restricting these markets isnt the answer. The CFTC already has rules against manipulation and insider trading in other markets, and those tools can work here too. Shutting down prediction markets to stop a few bad actors feels like punishing the majority of honest participants, including regular folks like me who are just trying to engage with the world in a meaningful way.
Id like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 29, regarding whether informed traders help price discovery, Id say absolutely yes. Their participation makes the market more reflective of reality. And on Question 15, about defining gaming versus legitimate markets, I believe event contracts serve real economic purposes, like hedging risks or gaining insight, and shouldnt be lumped in with gambling. These markets are a tool for understanding and managing uncertainty, not a game of chance.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Please dont impose broad bans or restrictions that would push activity to unregulated offshore platforms or exclude everyday people like me from participating. With the right oversight, these markets can thrive as a source of innovation and information. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Hiren Patel
