Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Yerik Valbuena, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Utah writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times, and I believe they can be a valuable tool for people like me if they're regulated properly. I'm not an expert or a big trader, but I care about having the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets and being able to hedge personal financial risks.
I've found prediction markets helpful for getting a clearer picture of what's likely to happen with events that affect my life, like economic policies or election outcomes that could impact my taxes or cost of living. The prices on these platforms often seem more accurate than what I hear from news or polls, and that information isn't just useful for traders. It helps everyone make better decisions. I also think it's important that regular folks like me can take part in these markets. If only big institutions get access, then they hoard all the insights, and that's not fair. Plus, I've used these markets to hedge a bit against financial risks, like betting on inflation numbers that affect my budget for groceries and rent. This isn't gambling to me; it's about protecting myself with research and judgment, just like any other investment.
One thing I'm really concerned about is making sure these markets stay regulated here in the U.S. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, feel much safer than unregulated offshore sites. If we over-restrict or ban prediction markets, people will just go to those shady platforms where there's no protection at all. That's a worse outcome for everyone. I also believe that informed trading actually makes these markets better. When people who know what they're talking about trade, the prices get more accurate, and that benefits all of us, not just the traders. Of course, I agree that insider trading has to be stopped. As long as strong rules are in place to prevent federal employees or others from abusing nonpublic information, I think prediction markets can be very beneficial.
I noticed a few of the questions in the ANPR that relate to my concerns, like Question 11 on balancing innovation with consumer protection and Questions 29-30 on informed traders and insider information. I urge you to focus on targeted rules to stop bad actors without shutting down the whole market. Banning prediction markets to stop a few cheaters would be like closing the stock market over insider trading. It's not the right fix.
I hope the CFTC will support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Keep them safe and open for people like me to use responsibly. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Yerik Valbuena
