Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Erik Diebolt, and I'm a trader and investor based in Texas. I'm writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi, and I believe these markets provide real value to individuals like me, as well as to businesses and the broader economy.
As a trader, I rely on prediction markets to hedge against risks that affect my financial planning. For instance, Ive used event contracts to offset uncertainties tied to election outcomes that could impact tax policies or regulatory changes relevant to my investments. This isn't gambling, it's a practical tool. I put in the time to research and analyze data, just as I do with stocks or commodities. These markets also give me access to unique information through their pricing, often more accurate than polls or pundits. That benefits not just me, but anyone paying attention to these signals.
I want to stress how important it is to keep these markets legal and regulated here in the U.S. Platforms like Kalshi, operating under CFTC oversight, provide a safe and transparent space to trade. If overly restrictive rules push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, it puts traders like me at risk of fraud or loss with no recourse. I've seen what unregulated spaces look like in other areas of finance, and I don't want to be forced into those corners just to access a legitimate tool. Regulation done right keeps us protected while allowing innovation.
Regarding some of the specific questions in the ANPR, Id like to address Question 8 under Public Interest. Prediction markets absolutely serve a public good by enabling price discovery and risk management, as Ive experienced firsthand. And on Question 23 under Procedural Aspects, I believe the CFTC should focus on proportionate rules for individual contracts rather than broad bans, ensuring legitimate markets aren't unfairly restricted.
I understand concerns about manipulation or insider trading. But those issues are already illegal, and the CFTC has the tools to enforce against bad actors. Shutting down or over-restricting prediction markets punishes honest participants like me instead of targeting the real problem. I urge you to focus on strong, targeted oversight rather than broad prohibitions.
Thank you for considering my input. I strongly encourage the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets, ensuring individuals and businesses can continue to use these valuable tools without being pushed into unsafe, unregulated spaces.
Sincerely,
Erik Diebolt
