Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Kiara Welcome, and I'm a regular citizen from New York writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I've been trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I hope my perspective as an everyday user can help inform your approach.
I got into prediction markets because I'm fascinated by how they forecast events like elections or other big public moments. Honestly, I've found their predictions to be way more accurate than what I hear from polls or TV pundits. I remember last year, during a major election cycle, the market on Kalshi nailed the outcome weeks before the final polls even caught up. That kind of insight isn't just useful for traders like me; it's valuable for anyone trying to understand what's really happening. It's a tool for clarity in a noisy world.
What I appreciate most is that platforms like Kalshi are regulated. I feel safer knowing there's oversight, compared to some sketchy offshore sites I've heard about. If the CFTC cracks down too hard or bans these markets, I worry people like me will get pushed to those unregulated places where there's no protection at all. That seems like a step backward. The US has a chance to lead the way on financial innovation here, setting a standard for the world. Why let other countries take over this space when we can shape it with smart rules?
I'm also convinced that when informed traders participate, it makes the market better for everyone. Their knowledge sharpens the prices, which helps me make decisions even if I'm not an expert. Yes, there are risks like insider trading or manipulation, but I don't think the answer is shutting things down. The CFTC already has tools to tackle bad actors. I'd rather see targeted rules that address specific problems than broad bans that punish regular users like me. Looking at some of your questions, like in Topic Area B (Questions 7-14) on balancing innovation and protection, or Topic E (Questions 29-32) on informed trading, I think the focus should be on proportionate regulation that keeps markets open and safe.
Prediction markets aren't just a hobby for me; they're a way to engage with the world and make sense of it. I urge you to support rules that allow these markets to thrive under fair oversight, without over-restricting or banning them outright. Let's keep the US at the forefront of this innovation while protecting everyday participants.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Kiara Welcome
