Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jacob Stephens, and I'm just a regular guy from Missouri writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm not a Wall Street trader or a policy expert, just someone who's been learning about prediction markets and sees real value in them. I want to urge the CFTC to support these markets with fair, targeted regulations instead of heavy-handed restrictions.
I've only recently started exploring prediction markets, but I'm struck by how they seem to cut through the noise. Whether it's an election or some big public event, the forecasts from these markets often beat out polls and pundits. That kind of accuracy isn't just neat, it's useful for everyone, from regular folks like me trying to make sense of the world to businesses planning for the future. I also appreciate that these platforms let someone like me participate in a legal, regulated space. Shutting that door or limiting access to just big players feels unfair and honestly less democratic.
I run a small side hustle selling handmade goods, and I can see how prediction markets could help people like me hedge real risks. Say an election outcome might change tax rules or shipping costs that hit my bottom line. Having a way to offset that uncertainty would be a lifeline. This isn't gambling, it's practical. I've read up on the academic research too, and it backs this up, showing how these markets pull together information in a way nothing else does. Calling them "gaming" feels like a misstep when they serve a clear economic purpose.
I get that there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and Im not ignoring those. But broad bans or overreaching rules aren't the answer. Proportionate regulation that targets specific bad behavior makes more sense. The CFTC already has tools to tackle fraud and manipulation in other markets, so why not adapt those here? Plus, regulated markets like Kalshi are a safer bet for consumers than pushing activity to shady offshore platforms. And on insider trading, isn't informed trading part of what makes prices more accurate? That benefits everyone, not just the traders.
I noticed a few of the questions in the ANPR that hit on this, like Questions 7 and 8 on balancing innovation with consumer protection, and Question 29 on whether informed traders help price discovery. My take is simple: lean toward innovation and accuracy with smart oversight, not restrictions. The U.S. should be leading on financial tools like this, not falling behind.
I'm asking the CFTC to support prediction markets with rules that address real risks without stifling their potential. Keep access open for regular people, ensure transparency, and focus on enforcement over bans. Thanks for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Jacob Stephens
