Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Cory Kumpf, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Pennsylvania writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times, mostly out of curiosity, and I can see their value for things like forecasting election outcomes or other big public events. I believe they can provide information that's hard to find elsewhere, often more accurate than polls or talking heads on TV. But Ive got serious concerns, and I want to be upfront about them.
Im worried that these markets are making society worse, especially for younger guys like men under 30 who get sucked into thinking they can make quick cash by throwing thousands of dollars at these platforms. From what Ive seen, they dont stand a chance against bad actors who seem to have inside info or ways to mess with outcomes. Thats not a fair game. I dont get how insider trading isnt a massive issue here. Could someone like Donald Trump have an account and bet on his own actions or statements? If not him, what about his speechwriters, his staff, or even family members? Wheres the line for whos banned from trading? It feels like platforms like Kalshi are corrupt, and Im not convinced theyre looking out for regular people like me.
That said, I dont think the answer is to just let things run wild either. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets will likely push all this activity to offshore sites where theres zero oversight. At least with regulated markets here in the US, theres a chance to keep an eye on things and hold bad actors accountable. Id rather see the CFTC come down hard on insider trading and manipulation with the tools you already have, rather than wiping out the whole industry. Shutting it down here just means the problems move somewhere we cant touch them.
As for specific questions in your notice, I think Question 29 about whether informed traders help with price discovery is worth digging into. I get that some insiders might make predictions more accurate, but when its people with unfair advantages, thats not helping anyone but themselves. And Question 7 on balancing innovation with consumer protection hits home for me. I want to see innovation, sure, but not at the cost of regular folks getting burned.
Im asking you to focus on strict rules against insider trading and manipulation, not blanket bans. Keep prediction markets regulated in the US so they dont go underground offshore. Protect people like me and the younger guys getting lured in, but dont throw out the potential good these markets can do for forecasting and information.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Cory Kumpf
