Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Rafael Beltre, and I'm a trader and investor based in Florida. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and Im writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I strongly support the CFTC developing fair, proportionate regulations for these markets rather than imposing broad restrictions or bans.
As someone who trades regularly, I've seen firsthand how prediction markets provide insights you just can't get from polls or pundits. For elections and other public events, the prices on these platforms often cut through the noise and give a clearer picture of what's likely to happen. This isn't just useful for traders like me. It's valuable for anyone trying to make sense of the world, from journalists to everyday citizens. I believe this forecasting power is a public good, and I think the CFTC should recognize that in its approach to regulation, especially when considering questions like 7 and 8 about balancing innovation with consumer protection.
I also want to stress that event contracts aren't gambling. When I trade on Kalshi, I'm putting in time to research and analyze real-world events. It's no different from the work I do when investing in stocks or other derivatives. These markets serve a real economic purpose, whether it's price discovery or helping people hedge risks tied to political or economic outcomes. I urge the CFTC to look at academic research on this, which shows how prediction markets aggregate information efficiently. This ties directly to questions 15 and 16 about defining what constitutes "gaming" versus legitimate market activity. I believe the data backs up that these are serious financial tools.
Another big concern for me is freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, under CFTC oversight, are a safe space to trade. If heavy restrictions or bans are put in place, people will just move to unregulated offshore platforms where theres no accountability. Thats a worse outcome for everyone. Id rather see the CFTC focus on targeted rules to address specific risks like manipulation or insider trading, as raised in questions 29 through 32, instead of broad categorical prohibitions.
I'm asking the CFTC to support prediction markets with regulations that are fair and focused. Don't shut down or over-restrict these markets because of a few potential bad actors. Use the tools you already have to tackle issues like manipulation, and let traders like me continue to participate in a system that provides real value to society. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Rafael Beltre
