Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Nicholas Antonio, and I'm a regular citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States. I believe they provide unique value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I urge the CFTC to adopt proportionate regulations rather than overly restrictive bans.
I've found prediction markets to be incredibly useful for getting accurate forecasts on elections and other public events. Honestly, their track record beats polls or pundits hands down. I don't just trade for fun; I use the information to better understand what's happening in the world. These platforms have opened a window into decisions that used to feel completely out of reach for regular folks like me. We're not in the dark anymore, waiting for outcomes we can't influence. That kind of transparency is powerful, and it helps everyone, not just traders.
I also see real economic value in these markets. They're not gambling, no matter what some might say. Trading on Kalshi takes research and judgment, just like investing in stocks. Plus, they let people and businesses hedge against real risks. For instance, Ive used event contracts to offset uncertainties tied to policy changes that could impact my personal finances. This isn't a game; it's a practical tool. I think the CFTC should recognize that in its rules, especially when addressing whether these contracts are "gaming" under questions 15 to 22 in the ANPR.
I'm also worried about what happens if the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets. I've seen unregulated offshore platforms out there, and they're nowhere near as safe as a CFTC-registered market like Kalshi. Pushing activity overseas by being too strict would hurt consumers, not protect them. On top of that, the US has a chance to lead in financial innovation. Why should we let other countries take the lead? I hope the CFTC considers this balance of innovation and consumer protection, as raised in questions 7 to 14.
As for concerns like insider trading or manipulation, I get that they're real issues. But the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle those problems in other markets. Use those same powers here. Banning entire categories of contracts to stop a few bad actors punishes the rest of us. And frankly, informed trading often makes prices more accurate, which benefits everyone. I'd urge you to look at questions 29 to 32 on inside information and focus on targeted rules instead of broad restrictions.
In short, I ask the CFTC to support prediction markets with fair, proportionate regulation. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Keep them safe and accessible for everyday people like me, and let the US stay ahead in this space. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Nicholas Antonio
