Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Adili Mupole, and I'm an everyday citizen from North Carolina writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I appreciate the chance to weigh in on this issue.
For me, trading on prediction markets isn't just a hobby, it's a way to engage with the world around me. I put time into researching events, reading up on policies, and making informed decisions about things like election outcomes or economic indicators. The information these markets provide feels unique, often more accurate than what I hear from news or polls. I believe this benefits everyone, not just those of us who trade. Plus, allowing regular people like me to participate makes the system fairer. If only big institutions could take part, they'd hoard all the insights, and that's not right.
I also want to stress that this isn't gambling. It takes real thought and judgment, much like investing in stocks. I've used these markets to hedge personal risks too, like betting on policy changes that could affect my taxes or cost of living. That's practical, not reckless. I'm glad to do this on a regulated platform like Kalshi, where there are rules and oversight, rather than some shady offshore site.
I know there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get that. Those are real risks. But I'm confident the CFTC already has strong tools to handle these issues. You've got the authority to crack down on anyone trying to rig prices or trade on nonpublic info, just as you do with other markets. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets to stop a few bad actors feels like punishing the rest of us who play by the rules. It's like closing a highway because a few people speed. Use the tools you've got instead of broad bans.
Specifically, regarding Questions 29 to 32 on inside information, I think informed traders can actually improve price accuracy, as long as they're not breaking laws. The focus should be on enforcing existing rules against insider trading, not shutting down the whole market. And on Questions 1 to 6 about core principles, I urge you to adapt your current anti-manipulation and dispute resolution frameworks to fit prediction markets, rather than creating overly harsh new restrictions.
In closing, I ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Keep platforms accessible to everyday folks like me, under fair and clear rules. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Adili Mupole
