Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Vincent Schmid, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Idaho writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times, and I believe they have real value for people like me. I want to express my support for well-regulated prediction markets and urge you not to ban or overly restrict them.
Ive found prediction markets to be incredibly useful for getting information that I cant find anywhere else. Honestly, their forecasts often beat out the polls or pundits I see on TV. A few years back, I remember checking a market on an election outcome, and the odds there were way closer to the actual result than anything the news was saying. That kind of accuracy helps regular folks like me make sense of whats happening, even if Im not trading every day. Its not just for traders; its for anyone who wants a clearer picture of the future.
What I care about most is the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, feel much safer to me than some shady offshore site with no rules. If you ban or put too many restrictions on these markets, I worry itll just push people like me to those unregulated platforms where theres no protection at all. Id much rather have the CFTC keeping an eye on things here in the US than have no say over what happens overseas.
I also believe that informed trading isnt a problem; it actually makes the markets better. When people who know something put their money where their mouth is, the prices get sharper, and that benefits everyone. Sure, insider trading is a concern, but its already illegal, and the CFTC has the tools to handle it. Shutting down entire markets over a few bad actors doesnt seem fair to the rest of us.
I noticed a few questions in the ANPR that tie into my thoughts. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think regulation should focus on safety without stifling access for regular people. And on Question 29, regarding inside information, Id say informed traders help more than they hurt, as long as existing laws against abuse are enforced.
Im not an expert or a big-time trader, just someone who sees the value in these markets. Please support proportionate regulation that keeps prediction markets accessible and safe for everyday citizens like me. Dont let over-restriction push this activity offshore where no one can oversee it.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Vincent Schmid
