Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Ryan Ynfante, and I'm an everyday citizen from Texas writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they serve a valuable purpose, and I'm concerned that over-restricting them could harm regular people like me who participate in these legal markets.
I got into prediction markets because they give me insights I can't find anywhere else. Whether it's an election outcome or an economic indicator like a CPI report, the prices on these platforms often seem more accurate than what I hear from pundits or see in polls. That information isn't just helpful for trading; it helps me make sense of the world. I think letting regular folks like me participate is important. If only big institutions can trade, they keep all that valuable info to themselves. Opening these markets to everyone makes the system fairer and the prices sharper.
I'm also a firm believer that informed trading benefits everyone in the market. When people who know what they're talking about put their money down, it improves price discovery for all of us. That ties directly to some of the questions in your ANPR, like Question 29 on whether informed traders help with accurate pricing. I think they absolutely do. Banning or overly restricting these markets because of worries about insider trading doesn't make sense to me. Those laws are already in place, and the CFTC has the power to enforce them. Shutting down entire markets to stop a few bad actors feels like punishing the rest of us who are just trying to engage in a legal activity.
I also care about keeping the US competitive in financial innovation. We shouldn't let other countries take the lead on something like this. Regulated markets like Kalshi are a better option than pushing activity to offshore platforms with no oversight. That just seems riskier for everyone. I'm not saying there shouldn't be rules. Of course, protect consumers and prevent manipulation. But let's not throw out the whole concept just because of a few potential issues.
To wrap up, I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Keep platforms accessible to everyday people like me while using the tools you already have to address concerns like manipulation. Prediction markets are a powerful tool for information and participation, and I hope you'll help them thrive under fair rules.
Sincerely,
Ryan Ynfante
