Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Joselyn Gutierrez, and I'm just a regular person from New York writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times, and I believe they have real value for people like me. I wanted to weigh in because I think these markets are misunderstood, and I support having them regulated in a fair way, not banned or over-restricted.
Ive always been interested in following current events, whether its elections or big economic decisions. A couple of years ago, I started dipping my toe into prediction markets to get a better sense of what might happen. I was amazed at how often the market prices were spot on, way more accurate than the polls or TV pundits I used to rely on. For example, during the last presidential election, the prediction market I used had a clearer picture of the outcome weeks before the final results, while the news kept flipping back and forth. That kind of insight isnt just useful for traders. Its helpful for anyone trying to make sense of the world.
I also want to push back on the idea that event contracts are gambling. To me, thats not what this is about. When Ive traded on these platforms, Im putting in time to research, read up on issues, and make informed guesses about real-world events. Thats not luck or a roll of the dice. Its a lot like investing in stocks, where you analyze data and take calculated risks. These markets have a real economic purpose, whether its helping people like me understand events better or letting businesses hedge against uncertainty. I think Question 15 from your ANPR, about defining gaming versus legitimate markets, gets at this, and Id urge you to see event contracts as distinct from gambling because of the information and analysis they involve.
Of course, I get that there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading. Those are real issues. But the CFTC already has rules and tools to tackle fraud in other markets, and I believe those can work here too. Shutting down prediction markets over a few bad actors feels like overkill. Itd be like closing the stock market because some people cheat. Instead, focus on enforcing the laws weve got.
Im just one voice, but I hope youll consider how valuable these markets can be for regular folks like me. They give us access to information and a way to engage with big issues. Please support proportionate regulation that lets prediction markets operate while addressing specific risks. Dont let heavy-handed rules take this tool away from us.
Sincerely,
Joselyn Gutierrez
