Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Sagar Ghimire, and I'm a trader and investor based in Texas. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on regulated prediction markets like Kalshi, and I strongly support the CFTC crafting fair, proportionate regulations for these markets rather than imposing heavy restrictions or outright bans.
As someone who spends a lot of time analyzing markets, Ive found prediction markets to be a unique and valuable tool. They provide insights you just cant get from polls or news outlets. Whether its an election outcome or an economic data release, the prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced information. This isnt just useful for traders like me; it helps everyone by making better information available. I also believe these markets are not gambling. Trading on Kalshi requires research and judgment, much like trading stocks or commodities. Its a skill, not a game of chance.
What matters most to me is the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, operating under CFTC oversight as a designated contract market, provide a safe and transparent environment for trading event contracts. Ive seen firsthand how their structure ensures clear rules and accountability. Compare that to unregulated offshore platforms, where theres no oversight, no consumer protection, and often no recourse if something goes wrong. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans prediction markets, people like me wont stop trading; well just be pushed to those riskier, unregulated venues. Thats not safer for anyone.
I want to address a concern I know the CFTC has, particularly around manipulation or insider trading, as raised in questions 29-32 of the ANPR. I get why this is a worry, but the answer isnt to shut down these markets. Laws already exist to prohibit insider trading and market manipulation, and the CFTC has the authority to enforce them. Punishing all traders for the actions of a few bad actors doesnt make sense. Focus on enforcing the rules, not banning the game.
I also want to touch on the public interest aspect from questions 7-14. Prediction markets arent just about individual profit; they democratize access to information and let regular people like me have a stake in understanding the world. Thats a net positive for society, as long as its done under proper oversight.
I urge the CFTC to support regulated prediction markets with clear, fair rules that address specific risks without stifling innovation or pushing activity offshore. Thank you for considering my perspective as you develop this framework.
Sincerely,
Sagar Ghimire
