Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Christopher Neuman, and Im a trader and investor based in Massachusetts. Im writing to comment on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States. I believe they provide unique value to individuals like me, as well as to society at large, and I urge the CFTC to adopt proportionate regulations rather than overly restrictive rules or bans.
As a trader, I find Kalshi incredibly useful because it lets me test my hypotheses on topics Im passionate about and have deep knowledge of, whether its election outcomes or other public events. The ability to capitalize on my research and judgment isnt just personally rewarding; it contributes to better price discovery that benefits everyone. Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets often forecast events more accurately than polls or pundits. That kind of information is invaluable, not just for traders, but for the public and even policymakers who need reliable data to make decisions.
I also view these markets as a legitimate economic tool, not gambling. Trading on Kalshi requires the same skills I use in other investments, like analyzing data and assessing real-world probabilities. Event contracts let me hedge risks that matter to me, like political or economic changes that could impact my financial planning. Classifying these as gaming ignores their real purpose, and I hope the CFTC will recognize this distinction when addressing questions like 15 and 16 on listed activities.
Im also concerned about what happens if these markets are over-restricted or banned. Id rather trade on a regulated platform like Kalshi, under the CFTCs oversight, than be pushed to unregulated offshore alternatives where theres no consumer protection. This ties directly to questions 7 and 8 on balancing innovation and public interest. Regulation is the answer, not prohibition. Targeted rules to address manipulation or insider trading, which are already illegal, make more sense than broad bans that punish honest participants. Plus, informed trading actually improves price discovery, as asked in question 29. It helps the market reflect reality better, which benefits us all.
Finally, I believe the US should lead in financial innovation. If we stifle prediction markets, other countries will step in, and well lose our edge. Academic research backs this up, showing how these markets aggregate information efficiently. Lets not cede this space to others. Im asking the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that keeps markets like Kalshi accessible, safe, and innovative.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Christopher Neuman
