Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Mathias Alcalde, and I'm just a regular guy from Oklahoma whos taken an interest in prediction markets. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I wanted to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets, and I hope my perspective as an everyday citizen can help shape your approach.
I started trading on prediction markets because I saw how often polls and pundits got things wrong, especially around elections and big public events. The prices on these markets cut through the noise and give insights you can't find anywhere else. I've used them to get a clearer picture of what's likely to happen, whether it's a presidential race or a major policy change. That kind of forecasting isn't just helpful for me; its valuable for everyone, from regular folks to businesses trying to plan ahead. I believe these markets play a real role in price discovery and better decision-making for society.
I also want to push back on the idea that event contracts are gambling. To me, trading on these platforms takes research and judgment, much like investing in stocks. I'm not just guessing; I'm analyzing real-world events. Plus, these markets let people like me hedge against risks. For example, Ive placed trades on election outcomes that could affect my taxes or local regulations impacting my community. Thats not a game; its a practical tool. I think the CFTC should recognize these legitimate economic purposes and avoid labeling them as "gaming," as discussed in Questions 15-22 of the ANPR.
I get that there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, but the CFTC already has solid tools to tackle those issues. Those problems are illegal now, and you have the power to enforce the rules. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets doesn't solve anything; it just pushes activity to unregulated offshore platforms where theres no oversight at all. Id much rather trade on a regulated market like Kalshi, where there are protections in place. Your Questions 7-14 about balancing innovation and consumer protection really hit on this, and I think the answer is clear: regulate proportionately, dont ban.
Lastly, I believe the US should be a leader in financial innovation. If we over-regulate or shut these markets down, other countries will step in, and well lose out. On top of that, informed trading actually makes prices more accurate, which benefits everyone, as touched on in Questions 29-32. Lets not punish regular people like me by taking away access to these tools.
I urge you to support proportionate, targeted regulation of prediction markets. Focus on specific risks without broad bans, and keep platforms like Kalshi accessible to everyday citizens. Thanks for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Mathias Alcalde
