Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Rebecca Hayden, and I'm an everyday citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times, and I believe they offer something valuable that shouldn't be taken away from regular people like me through over-regulation or outright bans.
I believe strongly in equality, and that means everyone should have the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Prediction markets give me a chance to engage with events that affect my life, whether it's an election that could change policies or an economic decision that might impact my costs. It's not gambling to me; it's about researching and making informed choices, just like investing in anything else. Shutting down or overly restricting these markets would take that freedom away from ordinary citizens, and I think that's unfair. Worse, it would push activity to unregulated offshore platforms where there's no oversight at all. I'd much rather see these markets stay here in the U.S., under the CFTC's watch, where rules can actually be enforced.
I do have real concerns about market manipulation and insider trading, though. It's not equal when some people cheat the system, and recent lawsuits and charges show this is still happening. Honestly, it makes me wonder how many other cases have gone undetected. But banning prediction markets isn't the answer. Punishing everyone for the actions of a few bad actors doesn't make sense. The CFTC already has tools to go after manipulation and insider trading in other markets, and I think those can be applied here too. Focus on catching and prosecuting the cheaters, not shutting down the whole system.
I'm particularly drawn to your questions in Topic Area E, like Question 29 about whether informed traders help with price discovery. I think they can, as long as they're not using illegal inside information. The prices on these markets often tell me things I can't find in news or polls, and that benefits everyone. But Question 31, about federal officials and nonpublic info, hits home for me. That kind of trading needs to be stopped cold with strict enforcement, not broad bans.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Keep them legal and regulated here in the U.S., where regular people like me can participate safely, and focus on cracking down on the real problems like insider trading and manipulation. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Rebecca Hayden
