Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Chandler Scott, and I'm a healthcare professional from Wisconsin. I'm writing to provide my input on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times myself, and I strongly support their continued operation under fair, proportionate regulation by the CFTC.
As someone working in healthcare, I often deal with uncertainty, whether it's about policy changes affecting my field or economic shifts impacting my patients and community. Prediction markets have offered me a unique way to gauge what might be coming, often with better accuracy than polls or news pundits. I've found their forecasts helpful for personal planning, like anticipating how a federal health policy might shift. This isn't gambling, it's a tool for understanding the world. Classifying event contracts as "gaming" ignores their real economic purpose, whether it's price discovery or hedging against uncertainty.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, operating under CFTC oversight, give me confidence that there are rules in place to protect consumers like me. That's a far cry from unregulated offshore alternatives, which have no accountability. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, I worry it will just push activity to those shadier venues. That doesn't protect anyone; it makes things riskier. The US should be leading in financial innovation, setting the standard for how these markets work, not handing that role to other countries.
I'm not blind to the concerns, though. Manipulation and insider trading are real risks, and consumer protection matters to me. But the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle those issues in other derivatives markets. I believe those same tools can work here, without resorting to broad bans. Targeted rules addressing specific problems make more sense than shutting down entire categories of contracts. I'd urge you to consider questions 7 and 29 from the ANPR, on balancing innovation with protection and the role of informed traders in price discovery. I think regulated markets strike that balance and benefit from diverse participation.
In short, I ask the CFTC to support prediction markets with reasonable, focused regulation. Don't let over-restriction drive this valuable tool underground or overseas. Keep the US at the forefront of innovation while protecting consumers through oversight, not prohibition.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Chandler Scott
