Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Valentin Bouchet, and I'm a business owner from Florida writing to comment on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been following prediction markets since their early days, and as someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi, I see immense value in them. I want to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets and urge the CFTC to craft rules that encourage innovation while protecting consumers.
For me, prediction markets aren't just a hobby. They're a unique tool for understanding the world. Unlike polls or pundits, which often miss the mark, these markets aggregate real-time information and incentives in ways that consistently produce more accurate forecasts for elections and public events. As a business owner, I rely on this information to make better decisions, whether it's anticipating policy changes or economic shifts that could impact my operations. Beyond that, I've used these markets to hedge personal and business risks, like potential regulatory changes that could affect my costs. This isn't gambling. It's a legitimate way to manage uncertainty, much like trading stocks or commodities.
I'm also a firm believer in democratized access. Prediction markets let regular people like me participate in a space that was once reserved for big institutions. This broad participation makes prices more accurate and ensures better information for everyone, not just the elite. I appreciate that platforms like Kalshi operate under CFTC oversight because regulated markets are far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If we over-restrict or ban these markets, activity will just move to less transparent venues, putting consumers at greater risk.
I understand concerns about manipulation or insider trading, but the CFTC already has robust tools to address these issues in other derivatives markets. Those same tools can work here. Banning broad categories of event contracts to stop a few bad actors punishes the many who use these markets responsibly. Instead, I encourage proportionate, targeted regulation. On the topic of public interest and price discovery, as raised in Questions 7 and 11, I believe informed trading improves market accuracy and benefits all participants. Event contracts aren't gaming. They serve real economic purposes like hedging and forecasting.
Lastly, the U.S. should lead in financial innovation, not cede ground to other countries. Let's not stifle a growing industry that has support from academic research and offers transparent data for public decision-making. I urge the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets with rules that address specific risks without broad bans.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Valentin Bouchet
