Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Zacharie Guida, and I'm a student from Colorado with a strong interest in economics and public policy. Im writing to comment on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi, Ive seen firsthand the value of prediction markets, and I urge the CFTC to support their growth through thoughtful, proportionate regulation rather than restrictive bans.
I started trading on prediction markets to better understand public events like elections and economic indicators. What struck me most is how these markets often provide more accurate forecasts than polls or pundits. As a student, I rely on good information to make sense of the world, and prediction markets cut through the noise. This isnt just helpful for me; its a public good. Better price discovery means better data for everyone, from journalists to policymakers. I also believe these markets let regular people hedge real risks. For instance, a small business owner I know used a market to offset uncertainty around a potential policy change. Thats not gambling; its practical.
Im also concerned about U.S. competitiveness. If we over-restrict prediction markets, we risk pushing activity to offshore platforms with no oversight. Id rather see the CFTC regulate these markets here, ensuring consumer protection and transparency. Banning broad categories of contracts punishes honest participants and cedes innovation to other countries. The U.S. should be a leader in financial technology, not a follower. Plus, academic research, which I follow closely, supports these markets for their ability to aggregate information efficiently. We need more data transparency, not less.
Addressing some of your specific questions, like those in Topic B on public interest (Questions 7-14), I believe prediction markets balance innovation with consumer needs when regulated properly. On Topic E regarding inside information (Questions 29-32), I think informed trading actually improves price discovery and benefits all participants, as long as existing laws against insider trading are enforced. The CFTC already has strong tools to prevent manipulation and abuse. Use them, dont create unnecessary barriers.
I understand concerns about potential misuse, but shutting down or overly restricting these markets isnt the answer. Targeted rules addressing specific risks make more sense than blanket prohibitions. Prediction markets arent gambling; they serve real economic purposes, and I hope the CFTC recognizes that.
Thank you for considering my input. I strongly support proportionate regulation of prediction markets to foster innovation, protect consumers, and keep the U.S. at the forefront of financial technology.
Sincerely,
Zacharie Guida
