Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Darien Oliver, and I'm a trader and investor based in California. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and Im writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, published in the Federal Register as 91 FR 12516. I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets, and I want to share why they matter to me and why I believe the CFTC should regulate them proportionately rather than impose broad restrictions or bans.
As a trader, Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets provide unique insights you cant get from polls or pundits. Ive used Kalshi to trade on election outcomes and economic indicators, and the prices often reflect a clearer picture of whats likely to happen than any news outlet or survey. This isnt just helpful for me; it benefits everyone by making better information available. I also use these markets to hedge real risks. For instance, Ive traded contracts tied to Federal Reserve decisions to offset uncertainties around interest rates that affect my investments. This isnt gambling. Its a practical tool, much like trading futures or options, and I believe classifying event contracts as gaming undercuts their legitimate economic purpose.
Im also concerned about what happens if these markets are over-restricted or banned. Ive seen unregulated offshore platforms out there, and theyre far riskier than a CFTC-regulated exchange like Kalshi. If the U.S. pushes this activity underground or overseas, itll hurt consumer protection, not help it. Regulation is the answer, not prohibition. On that note, I appreciate the CFTCs focus on manipulation and insider trading in Questions 1-6 and 29-32 of the ANPR. I agree these are valid concerns, but the CFTC already has strong tools to address them in other markets. Apply those here with targeted rules instead of broad bans. Plus, informed trading actually helps price discovery. When knowledgeable traders participate, the market gets more accurate, and thats good for everyone.
I also want to address the public interest questions, like those in 7-14 of the ANPR. Prediction markets arent just about innovation; they level the playing field by letting regular people like me participate alongside bigger players. Banning or over-restricting them would only lock out everyday traders while pushing activity to less safe venues. Proportionate regulation that focuses on specific risks makes more sense than categorical prohibitions.
I urge the CFTC to support the growth of prediction markets with fair, targeted rules that protect consumers while preserving access. Dont let heavy-handed restrictions drive this valuable tool offshore or out of reach for people like me who use it responsibly. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Darien Oliver
