Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Garrett Seliga, and I'm a trader and investor based in Pennsylvania. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and Im writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide real value to people like me, and to society as a whole, and I urge the CFTC to adopt proportionate regulations rather than overly restrictive rules or outright bans.
As a trader, Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets offer information you cant get anywhere else. Their forecasts on elections and public events consistently outperform polls and pundits. Thats not just helpful for traders; its valuable for anyone making decisions, from businesses to regular citizens. Ive used these markets to hedge personal financial risks tied to economic events, like inflation data releases that impact my investments or policy changes that could affect my taxes. This isnt gambling. Its a practical tool that takes research and judgment, much like trading stocks or commodities. Classifying event contracts as gaming (as raised in Questions 15-22) ignores their legitimate economic purpose, like price discovery and risk management.
I also want to stress that regulated markets like Kalshi are far safer than the unregulated offshore platforms out there. If the CFTC bans or over-restricts these markets, itll just push activity to less transparent venues where theres no oversight. Thats worse for consumer protection, not better. Id rather trade in a market where the CFTC can step in if something goes wrong. On that note, I believe the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle issues like manipulation and insider trading (as discussed in Questions 1-6 and 29-32). These problems arent unique to prediction markets, and the existing rules for other derivatives can be adapted here. Banning entire categories of contracts to stop a few bad actors punishes everyone else.
Im all for consumer protection, but it should come through smart regulation, not heavy-handed restrictions. Prediction markets let regular people like me participate in legal, regulated spaces and access better information for decision-making (relevant to Questions 7-14 on public interest). They also give individuals and businesses a way to hedge real risks. Shutting that down would be a mistake.
I appreciate the CFTC taking the time to gather public input on this. I strongly encourage you to support prediction markets with balanced rules that address specific risks without stifling innovation or pushing activity offshore. Lets keep these markets accessible, transparent, and regulated right here in the U.S.
Sincerely,
Garrett Seliga
