Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Joseph Altman, and I'm a trader and investor based in Virginia. I've been trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and Im writing to support well-regulated prediction markets in response to your Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). To me, this is about the American dream, straight up. Its about having the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets that give regular folks like me a chance to make smart financial moves based on real-world events.
Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets offer information you cant get anywhere else. Their forecasts on elections and public events consistently beat out polls and pundits. Thats not just good for traders, its good for everyone, from journalists to policymakers, who can use better data to make decisions. I also use these markets to hedge personal financial risks. For example, Ive traded contracts tied to economic indicators like CPI to offset worries about rising costs impacting my budget. This isnt gambling. It takes research and judgment, just like trading stocks or commodities. Classifying event contracts as gaming (as discussed in Questions 15-22) ignores their legitimate economic purpose, like price discovery and risk management.
Im all for consumer protection, but the answer isnt banning or over-restricting these markets. Regulated platforms like Kalshi are far safer than the unregulated offshore alternatives out there. If the CFTC clamps down too hard, youll just push activity to sketchy venues with no oversight. On that note, I think the CFTC already has solid tools to handle manipulation and insider trading (as raised in Questions 1-6 and 29-32). Informed trading actually helps price discovery, benefiting all participants, and bad actors can be dealt with using existing laws without punishing everyone else. Dont throw out the whole market just to stop a few cheaters.
I also believe the US should be leading the charge on financial innovation, not letting other countries take the wheel. Prediction markets are backed by serious academic research showing they aggregate information efficiently. Lets build on that with proportionate rules, not broad bans (as touched on in Questions 7-14 about public interest). Target the real risks, like manipulation, with specific regulations instead of shutting down entire categories of contracts.
I urge you to support prediction markets with balanced regulation that keeps them accessible to everyday traders like me. Dont let overreach kill a tool that helps with forecasting, hedging, and staying informed. Keep the American dream alive by letting us participate in these markets under fair, clear rules.
Sincerely,
Joseph Altman
