Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Ajani Boyd, and I'm a trader and investor based in New York. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and I'm writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide unique value to people like me, and to society as a whole, and I hope the CFTC will create a framework that allows them to thrive without over-restricting access.
I rely on prediction markets for accurate forecasting of elections and other public events. The prices on platforms like Kalshi often cut through the noise of polls and pundits, giving me a clearer picture of what's likely to happen. This isn't just useful for trading; it helps me make better decisions in my personal and financial life. I also use these markets to hedge risks, like potential policy changes or economic shifts that could impact my investments. Honestly, I love how Kalshi operates right now. If it were up to me, I wouldn't change a thing about their setup. It's accessible, transparent, and gives regular folks like me a chance to participate in a legal, regulated space.
I'm also a big believer in the broader benefits of these markets. They improve price discovery and provide better information for public decision-making. When informed traders participate, the prices get sharper, and that helps everyone, not just those of us in the market. Plus, the academic research backs this up. Studies have shown prediction markets aggregate information efficiently, often outperforming traditional forecasting methods. And let's be clear, this isn't gambling. Trading on event contracts takes research and judgment, just like trading stocks or commodities. It serves real economic purposes, like hedging and discovery of critical information.
I want to address a few specific questions from the ANPR. On Questions 29-32 about inside information, I believe informed trading actually improves price discovery and benefits all participants. The CFTC already has strong tools to prevent manipulation and insider trading in other derivatives markets, and those can be adapted here without banning entire categories of contracts. As for Questions 7-14 on public interest, I think the U.S. should lead in financial innovation. If we over-regulate or shut down these markets, we risk pushing activity to offshore platforms with no consumer protections. I'd much rather see robust regulation here at home.
I understand there are concerns about manipulation or misuse, but shutting down prediction markets isn't the answer. Punishing everyone for the actions of a few bad actors doesn't make sense. Instead, I urge the CFTC to focus on proportionate rules that address specific risks while allowing these markets to grow.
Thank you for considering my input. I strongly support a regulatory framework for prediction markets that protects consumers without stifling innovation or access.
Sincerely,
Ajani Boyd
