Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Oscar Naslund, and I'm a student from New York with a strong interest in markets and economics. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and Im writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I want to express my support for well-regulated prediction markets and urge the CFTC to avoid bans or overly restrictive rules that could harm regular participants like me.
Prediction markets are valuable to me as a student because they offer unique insights you can't find in textbooks or news. They aggregate real-world information into prices that often predict outcomes better than polls or pundits. I use platforms like Kalshi to learn about events, test my judgment, and participate in a financial system that feels more accessible than traditional investing. This isn't gambling. It takes research and critical thinking, much like trading stocks or commodities. I believe allowing everyday people like me to take part makes these markets fairer and the information they produce more accurate.
That said, Ive had some frustrating experiences with Kalshi. They advertise a 3.25% interest rate on accounts, but I get 0% because I'm not based in the US, even though Im in New York. It feels like a blatant lie, and its disappointing. On top of that, their fees are way too high, eating into any potential gains I might make. Despite these issues, I still value the platforms existence and think the answer is better oversight, not shutting down or over-restricting these markets.
Im especially concerned about the risk of pushing activity offshore if regulations become too tight, as raised in Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection. If the CFTC bans or heavily limits prediction markets, people like me will just turn to unregulated foreign platforms that offer no protections at all. Id much rather trade on a regulated US market, even with flaws, than take my chances in a less safe environment. Regulated markets like Kalshi, under CFTC oversight, are the better option. You already have tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading, as discussed in Questions 1 and 29. Use those instead of broad restrictions.
I also want to touch on freedom to participate, tied to Question 13 about public interest. Banning or over-restricting these markets would cut off regular folks from a tool that helps us understand and hedge against uncertainty. Its not right to punish everyone for the actions of a few bad actors. Proportionate regulation can address specific risks without taking away my ability to engage in a legal, regulated space.
I urge the CFTC to support prediction markets with fair, balanced rules. Dont let heavy-handed restrictions drive activity offshore or exclude people like me from participating. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Oscar Naslund
