Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Markus Lengacher, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Indiana writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I hope my perspective as a regular person using these markets can help inform your approach.
I got into prediction markets because I wanted a clearer picture of what's happening in the world. Polls and pundits often get things wrong, and I've seen firsthand how prediction markets cut through the noise. The prices on these platforms reflect what people actually think, based on where they're willing to put their money. Academic research backs this up, showing that prediction markets consistently outperform traditional forecasting methods. I believe this data is valuable not just to traders like me, but to everyone, from journalists to policymakers, who need reliable information to make decisions. It's frustrating to see so much guesswork out there when these markets offer something better.
I'm also a big believer in transparency. When I trade on Kalshi, I can see how the market moves and what drives the prices. That openness helps me learn and understand events in a way I can't get from cable news or social media. I think the CFTC should encourage this kind of data sharing, making sure the public can access the insights these markets generate. This ties into some of the questions in your notice, like Question 7 on balancing innovation with consumer protection. I believe supporting prediction markets is innovative and protects consumers by giving us access to better information.
I know there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get that. But those issues are already illegal, and the CFTC has tools to tackle them. Shutting down or over-restricting prediction markets because of a few bad actors feels like punishing the rest of us who use these platforms responsibly. I've used Kalshi to hedge small personal risks, like how an election might impact my taxes, and that utility shouldn't be taken away. Regarding Question 29 on inside information, I think informed traders actually help make prices more accurate, as long as they're not breaking the law. The focus should be on enforcing existing rules, not banning entire markets.
I urge the CFTC to craft regulations that support prediction markets while addressing specific risks with targeted solutions. Let's keep these platforms accessible to regular folks like me and ensure the U.S. leads in this space. Please don't let overly harsh rules push this activity offshore or underground. Thanks for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Markus Lengacher
