Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jalen Gant, and I'm a student from Michigan. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times myself, and I strongly support their continued operation under fair, proportionate regulation. I believe these markets provide unique value to society, and I'm concerned about the risks of over-restricting or banning them outright.
As a student, I value access to information and the freedom to engage with tools that help me understand the world. Prediction markets have been a fascinating way for me to do that. I've placed small trades on platforms like Kalshi, mostly on election outcomes or economic indicators, and it's taught me a lot about how events are priced based on collective knowledge. What's striking to me is how these markets often predict outcomes more accurately than polls or pundits. Ive seen studies, like those from economists such as Justin Wolfers, showing that prediction markets aggregate information in ways traditional methods can't match. This isn't just useful for traders; it benefits everyone by providing clearer signals about what might happen next in politics or the economy.
I also want to stress that event contracts aren't gambling in my view. They serve real purposes, like helping people hedge risks or make informed decisions. For example, I could see myself using a market to offset uncertainty about policy changes that might affect my student loans or future job prospects. Labeling this as gaming feels like a misstep when it's really about research and judgment, much like investing in stocks.
I'm particularly drawn to a few of the questions in your ANPR, like Question 7 on balancing innovation with consumer protection and Question 15 on defining gaming versus legitimate markets. I think the CFTC should prioritize rules that keep markets safe and transparent without stifling access. As an academic at heart, I also care about data transparency. Prediction market data could be a goldmine for researchers studying human behavior or forecasting models, and I hope regulation supports making this information accessible for study.
One big worry I have is that banning or over-restricting these markets will just push activity offshore to unregulated platforms. Thats worse for everyone. It means less oversight, more risk for users like me, and the U.S. loses out on leading in financial innovation. Id rather see the CFTC focus on strong, clear rules for registered markets here at home.
In short, I urge you to support regulated prediction markets with fair guidelines that protect users while allowing regular people like me to participate. Dont let heavy-handed restrictions or outright bans shut down something so valuable. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Jalen Gant
