Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Dominic Wydeven, and I'm a finance professional based in Michigan. Im writing to share my support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi, Ive seen firsthand the value these markets provide, and Im concerned about the risks of over-restriction or outright bans.
Prediction markets arent just a niche hobby for me. They offer unique information that I cant get from polls or news outlets. The prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced insights that often predict outcomes better than so-called experts. This isnt just helpful for traders like me; its valuable for the public, policymakers, and businesses who need accurate data to make decisions. I believe the CFTC should prioritize regulations that preserve this price discovery function, as discussed in Questions 7 and 8 under the Public Interest section.
I also want to emphasize the importance of keeping these markets accessible to regular people like me. As a finance professional, I understand the skills needed to trade on platforms like Kalshi, research and judgment about real-world events, are no different from what I use in traditional markets. Shutting down or overly restricting prediction markets wont stop trading; itll just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms where theres no oversight. Thats a worse outcome for everyone. Id urge the CFTC to consider this when addressing Questions 23 and 24 about procedural aspects of regulation. Lets keep these markets legal and regulated here in the US.
Another point I care deeply about is US competitiveness in financial innovation. If we clamp down on prediction markets, we risk ceding leadership to other countries that are more open to new ideas. We should be fostering innovation, not stifling it. This ties directly to Questions 33 and 34 on classification and costs. Regulation should be proportionate, not a barrier to entry.
Lastly, Ive read academic research, like studies by Hanson and Wolfers, showing how informed trading in prediction markets improves price accuracy. Even if some worry about insider information, as raised in Questions 29 and 30, I believe informed traders ultimately benefit all participants by making prices more reliable. The CFTC already has tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading in other markets. Use those tools here instead of broad restrictions.
Im not blind to the concerns about potential misuse, but banning or over-regulating these markets punishes the many for the actions of a few. I respectfully ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that keeps prediction markets accessible, transparent, and innovative while addressing specific risks with targeted rules.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Dominic Wydeven
