Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Andrew Turner, and I'm a student from Florida. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. They're not just a hobby for me; they offer real value to society, and I believe the CFTC should focus on proportionate regulation rather than heavy restrictions or outright bans.
As a student, I value access to information, and prediction markets provide something unique. I've seen firsthand how their prices often predict outcomes more accurately than polls or pundits. Whether it's an election or an economic indicator, these markets aggregate what people really think, based on where they're willing to put their money. That kind of insight helps me understand the world better, and I know it benefits others too, from journalists to policymakers. Plus, trading on these platforms isn't gambling. It takes research and critical thinking, much like investing in stocks. Classifying event contracts as "gaming," as discussed in Questions 15-22 of the ANPR, ignores their legitimate economic purpose. They're tools for price discovery and hedging, not slot machines.
I also use prediction markets to hedge personal risks. For example, I've traded contracts tied to economic data releases that could impact my future job prospects or student loan rates. It's a practical way to manage uncertainty, and I know businesses use these markets similarly for things like regulatory or policy risks. On top of that, having access to regulated platforms like Kalshi is a big deal. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, people like me will just turn to unregulated offshore sites, which are far less safe. I'd rather trade in a system with oversight, where the CFTC can use its existing tools to prevent manipulation and insider trading, as mentioned in Questions 1-6 and 29-32. You already have the authority to tackle bad actors; there's no need to punish everyone by shutting down the market.
Another concern of mine is U.S. competitiveness. I've studied financial innovation in my classes, and it's clear the U.S. should be leading the way on new markets like these, not falling behind other countries. If we over-regulate, we're just handing the advantage to others, as hinted at in Questions 7-14 about balancing innovation and protection. And let's not forget that informed trading actually helps. When knowledgeable people trade, prices get more accurate, which benefits everyone, not just traders.
I urge the CFTC to support regulated prediction markets with fair, targeted rules. Don't ban or overly restrict them. Keep platforms accessible to regular people like me, and focus on using your existing powers to address specific risks. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Andrew Turner
